Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 19.263965 20.937731 22.785025 24.994060 27.589757 30.576690 34.324814
2024-10-27 17.304779 19.637080 22.416324 26.049096 30.797697 36.994907 46.082760
2024-11-03 15.432661 18.027861 21.288879 25.839259 32.308647 41.717198 57.755064
2024-11-10 14.169598 16.934852 20.561159 25.907778 34.101657 47.331556 73.878465
2024-11-17 13.235043 16.116588 20.032371 26.088067 36.026819 53.812581 96.620869
2024-11-24 12.469867 15.420213 19.550482 26.206563 37.829290 60.817554 128.624738
2024-12-01 11.732680 14.678441 18.897279 25.920231 38.822773 66.681089 167.712678
2024-12-08 11.181331 14.143660 18.479699 25.930868 40.345671 74.574159 236.487949
2024-12-15 10.648858 13.588344 17.966671 25.688647 41.294518 81.670398 337.860414
2024-12-22 10.174129 13.080554 17.475632 25.407117 42.086210 88.965217 515.221960
2024-12-29 9.765569 12.642202 17.053476 25.187676 42.962263 97.346770 916.836083
2025-01-05 9.410876 12.261607 16.690873 25.027717 43.942312 107.161173 2351.014378
2025-01-12 9.000749 11.777922 16.131231 24.440837 43.794775 112.840054 9938.890306
2025-01-19 8.899587 11.766138 16.356234 25.424080 47.994242 144.397992 NaN
2025-01-26 8.607113 11.435932 16.012550 25.208369 48.887716 160.880757 NaN
2025-02-02 8.381234 11.199140 15.812569 25.267643 50.626099 187.610448 NaN
2025-02-09 8.188901 11.005427 15.672965 25.437535 52.791642 225.835382 NaN
2025-02-16 8.002012 10.810490 15.516418 25.549755 54.845208 274.311142 NaN
2025-02-23 7.775148 10.539366 15.204391 25.274784 55.507138 312.505179 NaN
2025-03-02 7.601011 10.347388 15.024788 25.284713 57.235465 384.583009 NaN
2025-03-09 7.406904 10.113926 14.754556 25.052432 58.003654 452.909725 NaN
2025-03-16 7.219788 9.884863 14.480011 24.782461 58.568154 533.388657 NaN
2025-03-23 7.050677 9.679734 14.239599 24.571988 59.340664 650.122352 NaN